AUSTIN — Something will happen in 2012 that is relatively rare in Texas politics: a U.S. Senate seat will be up for election, without an incumbent.

 That is, it will be if senior U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison follows through on her recent statement that she won’t seek re-election next year. If she serves out her term, she will have been in the Senate for just under 20 years.

 Just four times since the 1920s has a Senate seat from Texas been initially filled at an open general election, with no incumbent seeking re-election: 1948, 1952, 1984, and most recently, in 2002.

    An open seat is a big deal, because if history is a guide, Texans elected to Senate seats usually hold onto them for a long time.

In 1948, conservative Democrat W. Lee “Pappy” O’Daniel did not seek re-election after seven and a half years in the Senate. Then-U.S. Rep. Lyndon Johnson and former Gov. Coke Stevenson got into a famed Democratic Party runoff, in which Johnson was declared the victor by 87 votes.

 In 1952, U.S. Sen. Tom Connally, did not seek re-election, wrapping up his career in the Senate a an even 30 years. And then-Atty. Gen. Price Daniel Sr., a former speaker of the Texas House of Representatives, easily won the race to replace him.

    In 1984, incumbent Republican John Tower chose not to seek re-election, after 23 ½  years. Then-U.S. Rep. Phil Gramm, who had switched from the Democrats to the Republicans the year before, won the race to replace him.

    And in 2002, Gramm did not seek re-election, after almost 18 years. Then-Atty. Gen. John Cornyn, a Republican, won the fight to replace him, and was re-elected in 2008.

    Four times over those years, a senate seat has been filled in special elections. Those are different from the regular elections, and usually attract more candidates. That’s because people holding other offices can run without giving up their current job to do so.

In 1941, when the special election was held to fill the seat vacated by the death of Sen. Morris Sheppard, after just over 28 years in the senate, 27 candidates filed.

Then-Gov. W. Lee “Pappy” O’Daniel narrowly beat then-U.S. Rep. Lyndon Johnson to replace Sheppard.

In the 1957 special election to replace Price Daniel Sr. after he was elected governor in 1956, 23 candidates ran.

    Progressive Democrat Ralph W. Yarborough won that election with 38.1 percent. At that time, there were no runoffs in special elections. That law was changed in 1959 to require a runoff if no one got a majority in the first election.)

    In 1960, Lyndon Johnson was simultaneously re-elected to the Senate and elected vice-president. Upon taking the oath of office as vice-president, his Senate seat became vacant.

The 1961 special election to fill the remainder of Johnson’s term drew 71 candidates. Republican John Tower won a runoff to fill the seat.

    And in 1993, when Democrat Lloyd Bentsen quit the Senate after just over 22 years to become President Bill Clinton’s secretary of the treasury, the special election to replace him attracted two dozen candidates, including two members of Congress. Then-state Treasurer Kay Bailey Hutchison beat interim appointee Bob Krueger, a Democrat, in a runoff – and has been in the Senate ever since.

    In a regular election, an office-holder whose job is up for election – such as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives or the Texas House – cannot be listed for two offices on the same ballot, except for president or vice-president.

    However, an official who is in mid-term during the election – as all holders of four-year terms, like Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and Gov. Rick Perry will be in 2012 – can run for the senate, or president, without giving up their existing post.

So rare is it for an incumbent senator to be beaten for re-election after successfully surviving one re-election that it’s only happened once since the 1920s. In 1970, conservative Democrat Bentsen ended the populist Yarborough’s Senate career at 13 years, by beating him in the Democratic primary.

Yarborough, first elected in a 1957special election, had successfully won re-election in 1958 and 1964.    

Yarborough and Bentsen had in common that each had beaten George H.W. Bush in Senate elections – Yarborough in 1964, and Bentsen in 1970.

Crow Eaten Here:

Sometimes I write something I later regret.

In a recent column about efforts to push Republican Texas House members to oppose Joe Straus’s re-election as House speaker, I wrote:

“To some Shiite-style Christian groups, the fact Straus is Jewish made him unfit to lead.”

Some complained of my adjective “Shiite-style” to suggest religious over-zealousness. I ascribed behavior of some people to an entire religious group.

 I shouldn’t have, and I apologize.

Dave McNeely covers Texas politics for newspapers around the state.